Hey guys,


Been playing a looonngggg time - since the game first came out. During that time, I've kept track of nearly all of my hero and talent rolls, and I've got some good statistics on other parts of the game as well.
 
To give you an idea of sample size - If you were to buy gems tomorrow and roll for heroes and talents to get this sample size, it would take 1.27 million gems...or about $6,500 with 25% bonus
 
I wanted to share because I think it's important for people (newer players especially) to have a good idea of what they're getting into. It's important to be realistic about what to expect when buying gems, or rolling gems that you've saved up.


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(Disclaimer: Nobody is going to have the same exact numbers as me. But with this large of a sample size, we know it's reasonably close. There will be people out there who have had better luck, and there will be people who have had worse luck...with both talents and heroes. I've rolled 6 Vlads and 2 PD's even though Vlad came out an entire year after PD. There's another guy out there with 8 PD's and 0 Vlads. That's just how random works.



The more detailed you get, the less accurate. So the chance for a legendary is likely much more accurate than my chances for each individual hero - because they have smaller sample sizes and are likely skewed.)


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Dungeon Drop Chance for 100% Victory: 30%


Total Runs: 2357
Total Drops: 701
701/2357=29.74%


Dungeon Drop Chance for 0-99%% Victory: 15%

Total Runs: 156
Total Drops: 24
24/156 = 15.38%

(note: absolutely nothing influences drop rate EXCEPT not finishing 100%, which cuts the drop rate in half. Nothing else matters - switching dungeons, magic, losing heroes, etc. you can safely do the same dungeon over and over. It will even out after a few hundred runs. Comprehensive Dungeon Tests) 


Lost Realm Event Chance: 20%
Total Chances: 1025
Total Events: 205
205/1025 = 20.0%

 
LR Event Breakdown:
Treasure Trove: 45%
Merchant: 32%
Demon: 23%


(note: this puts the chance on any 'action' in LR at about 9% for a trove, 6% for a merchant, and 4-5% for a demon)
 


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Hero Rolling:
Total Rolls: 3110
 
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Slimes: 24.82%
Heroes: 75.18%



Gem Heroes: 1.13%


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Overall Hero Breakdown

Elite: 61.32%
Ordinary: 8.55%
Legendary: 5.31%
(Gem only: 1.13%)
 
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Slimes:  772 - 24.82%
(Blue Slime) - 627 - 20.16%
(Purple Slime) - 145 - 4.66%

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Heroes:  2338 - 75.18%
Elite - 1907 - 61.32%
Ordinary - 266 - 8.55%
Legendary - 165 - 5.31%
(Shard Legend) - 130 - 4.18%
(Gem Legend) - 35 - 1.13%

*(sample size: 466,500 gems)
 
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Legendary Breakdown:


Shard: 130
Paladin - 25
Champion - 20
Succubus - 19
Ninja - 18
Druid - 13
Thunder God - 12
Atlanticore - 10
Grizzly Reaper - 7
Immortep - 6
Siren 0


Gem: 35
Snowzilla - 11
Cupid - 8
Vlad Dracula - 6
Orksbane - 4
Pumpkin Duke - 2
Aries - 2
Santa Boom - 1
Pixie - 1
Death Knight - 0
Warlock 0
Treantaur 0


(Note: A lot of these rolls were done before some of the newer heroes, but all rolls were done after PD came out)
 
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Talent Rolls:
Total Rolls: 2699

1/5: 56.43%
2/5: 26.42%
3/5: 10.60%
4/5: 4.63%
5/5: 1.93%

*(sample size: 809,700 gems)
 
Talent Rolling Breakdown:


Tenacity - 151 - 5.63%
Blade Shell - 160 - 5.96%
Stone Skin - 160 - 5.96%
Slow Down - 148 - 5.52%
Flame Guard - 138 - 5.14%
Scorch - 225 - 8.39%
Sprint - 162 - 6.04%
Enlighten - 133 - 4.96%
Bulwark - 52 - 1.94%
Deadly Strike - 149 - 5.55%
Heavy Blow - 187 - 6.97%
Scatter - 149 - 5.55%
Self Destrust - 159 - 5.93%
War God - 122 - 4.55%
Berserk - 175 - 6.52%
Life Drain - 33 - 1.23%
Revitalize - 186 - 6.93%
Revive - 194 - 7.23%
 
(Note: This seems to give merit to claims that Bulwark and Life Drain are the hardest talents to roll. Please note, a couple hundred of these were before Bulwark and Life Drain were added, but they came out the same update as Enlighten, whose numbers look roughly in line with the other talents. Coincidence? Doubtful.)



Special Events:
Smash & Win: 5.52%
n: 163
Heroes: 9
(3 Molt, 3 Aries, 2 Ork, 1 PD)
 
Treasure Chest: 10.20%
n: 98
Heroes: 10
(4 Aries, 3 Molt, 1 Santa, 1 Vlad, 1 PD)
 
Uncover the Treasure: 4.12%
n: 97
Heroes: 4
(4 Cupid)
 
Lucky Flip: 21.62%
n: 37
Heroes: 8
(3 PD, 3 Ork, 1 DK, 1 PD)
 
Total Event (assuming all equal chances): 7.85%
n: 395
Heroes: 31


Special Event Hero Breakdown:
Aries: 7
Molt: 6
Ork: 5
Cupid: 4
PD: 3
Santa: 1
Vlad: 1
DK: 1

*(sample size: 553,000 gems)

 
This took A LOT of time, so I hope it helps! If you have any questions, feel free to ask. =)




Last note: 3,110 hero rolls - or 466,500 gems' worth....and 2 PD's. So before you post a thread about rolling 3,000 gems and not getting anything good, refer back to this page. When you're dealing with small probabilities there will be wide variance between each person due to each individual's small sample size.


Just go into hero/talent rolling expecting nothing, but entertainment value and if you get something great you'll be happy 

LR Tips/Tricks based on data:
Merchant Average:
70k blue crystals, 0.75 silver keys, 0.18 gold keys, 1.7 crests (sold for gold), 0.9 crests (sold with gems) 
Demon Average:
800 red crystals, 1 mythic crest
Trove Average: 
Negligible (usually a loss)

- Given this information, the average value of an 'action' due only to a chance of an event is about 5k blue crystals + 40 red crystals + .01 gold keys + .05 silver keys + + 0.05 mythic crest bags + crests, etc. This means that fighting 6 stamina mobs is drastically more rewarding than fighting 12 stamina mobs, given that fighting them gives you almost double chance for an event, while giving up almost no red crystals and a negligible amount of silver/gold keys. The 6 stamina mobs actually give you greater experience per stamina as well.










Fun facts:

3 most common heroes when rolling gems:

Quick thoughts

- 5% legend rate is commonly claimed, this supports that
- shard legends more common than gem only, and cheaper shard legends more than expensive should not surprise anyone
- I believe bulwark was introduced after initial release, which may account for its low rate

Kind of scary, yet not all that surprising, the low chance of fetching a gem only hero

Banned  

a decent sample, but makes me wonder how much igg test rolls and all....probably millions of gems since a test account you see in a sneak peek screenshot got 6million gems just sitting there :p  could argue your gem hero roll rate is mostly just luck...myself im over 50% of legends being gem only rolls

Thanks for posting these. I was just about to create a post with regards to dungeon drops and spells. I remember reading a while ago that the use of magic influences the drop rate. Since I just got to expert dungeon 7-10, I was wondering if the chance for shards is still 30% if magic is used.

Thanks for the info, always wondered but nice to see what the statistics really look like.

Nice. I kept track of how many PDs ive won and rolled, 24, and i haven't seen another PD number like mine yet. Good breakdown though, very informative.

Banned